A threshold analysis of dengue transmission in terms of weather variables and imported dengue cases in Australia.
Identifieur interne : 000221 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000220; suivant : 000222A threshold analysis of dengue transmission in terms of weather variables and imported dengue cases in Australia.
Auteurs : Xiaodong Huang [Australie] ; Archie Ca Clements [Australie] ; Gail Williams [Australie] ; Gabriel Milinovich [Australie] ; Wenbiao Hu [Australie]Source :
- Emerging microbes & infections [ 2222-1751 ] ; 2013.
Abstract
Dengue virus (DENV) transmission in Australia is driven by weather factors and imported dengue fever (DF) cases. However, uncertainty remains regarding the threshold effects of high-order interactions among weather factors and imported DF cases and the impact of these factors on autochthonous DF. A time-series regression tree model was used to assess the threshold effects of natural temporal variations of weekly weather factors and weekly imported DF cases in relation to incidence of weekly autochthonous DF from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009 in Townsville and Cairns, Australia. In Cairns, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence increased 16.3-fold when the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was <32 °C, the 4-week lagged moving average minimum temperature was ≥24 °C and the sum of imported DF cases in the previous 2 weeks was >0. When the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was ≥32 °C and the other two conditions mentioned above remained the same, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence only increased 4.6-fold. In Townsville, the mean weekly incidence of autochthonous DF increased 10-fold when 3-week lagged moving average rainfall was ≥27 mm, but it only increased 1.8-fold when rainfall was <27 mm during January to June. Thus, we found different responses of autochthonous DF incidence to weather factors and imported DF cases in Townsville and Cairns. Imported DF cases may also trigger and enhance local outbreaks under favorable climate conditions.
DOI: 10.1038/emi.2013.85
PubMed: 26038449
PubMed Central: PMC3880872
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">A threshold analysis of dengue transmission in terms of weather variables and imported dengue cases in Australia.</title><author><name sortKey="Huang, Xiaodong" sort="Huang, Xiaodong" uniqKey="Huang X" first="Xiaodong" last="Huang">Xiaodong Huang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006, Australia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Qld 4006</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Clements, Archie Ca" sort="Clements, Archie Ca" uniqKey="Clements A" first="Archie Ca" last="Clements">Archie Ca Clements</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006, Australia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Qld 4006</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Williams, Gail" sort="Williams, Gail" uniqKey="Williams G" first="Gail" last="Williams">Gail Williams</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006, Australia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Qld 4006</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Milinovich, Gabriel" sort="Milinovich, Gabriel" uniqKey="Milinovich G" first="Gabriel" last="Milinovich">Gabriel Milinovich</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006, Australia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Qld 4006</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hu, Wenbiao" sort="Hu, Wenbiao" uniqKey="Hu W" first="Wenbiao" last="Hu">Wenbiao Hu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006, Australia ; School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology , Brisbane, Qld 4006, Australia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006, Australia ; School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology , Brisbane, Qld 4006</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Qld 4006</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2013">2013</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:26038449</idno><idno type="pmid">26038449</idno><idno type="doi">10.1038/emi.2013.85</idno><idno type="pmc">PMC3880872</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">000204</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000204</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000204</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Curation">000204</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000204</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">A threshold analysis of dengue transmission in terms of weather variables and imported dengue cases in Australia.</title><author><name sortKey="Huang, Xiaodong" sort="Huang, Xiaodong" uniqKey="Huang X" first="Xiaodong" last="Huang">Xiaodong Huang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006, Australia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Qld 4006</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Clements, Archie Ca" sort="Clements, Archie Ca" uniqKey="Clements A" first="Archie Ca" last="Clements">Archie Ca Clements</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006, Australia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Qld 4006</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Williams, Gail" sort="Williams, Gail" uniqKey="Williams G" first="Gail" last="Williams">Gail Williams</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006, Australia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Qld 4006</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Milinovich, Gabriel" sort="Milinovich, Gabriel" uniqKey="Milinovich G" first="Gabriel" last="Milinovich">Gabriel Milinovich</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006, Australia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Qld 4006</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hu, Wenbiao" sort="Hu, Wenbiao" uniqKey="Hu W" first="Wenbiao" last="Hu">Wenbiao Hu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006, Australia ; School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology , Brisbane, Qld 4006, Australia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006, Australia ; School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology , Brisbane, Qld 4006</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Qld 4006</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Emerging microbes & infections</title><idno type="ISSN">2222-1751</idno><imprint><date when="2013" type="published">2013</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Dengue virus (DENV) transmission in Australia is driven by weather factors and imported dengue fever (DF) cases. However, uncertainty remains regarding the threshold effects of high-order interactions among weather factors and imported DF cases and the impact of these factors on autochthonous DF. A time-series regression tree model was used to assess the threshold effects of natural temporal variations of weekly weather factors and weekly imported DF cases in relation to incidence of weekly autochthonous DF from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009 in Townsville and Cairns, Australia. In Cairns, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence increased 16.3-fold when the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was <32 °C, the 4-week lagged moving average minimum temperature was ≥24 °C and the sum of imported DF cases in the previous 2 weeks was >0. When the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was ≥32 °C and the other two conditions mentioned above remained the same, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence only increased 4.6-fold. In Townsville, the mean weekly incidence of autochthonous DF increased 10-fold when 3-week lagged moving average rainfall was ≥27 mm, but it only increased 1.8-fold when rainfall was <27 mm during January to June. Thus, we found different responses of autochthonous DF incidence to weather factors and imported DF cases in Townsville and Cairns. Imported DF cases may also trigger and enhance local outbreaks under favorable climate conditions. </div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">26038449</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2015</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>03</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2018</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>13</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">2222-1751</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>2</Volume><Issue>12</Issue><PubDate><Year>2013</Year><Month>Dec</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Emerging microbes & infections</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Emerg Microbes Infect</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>A threshold analysis of dengue transmission in terms of weather variables and imported dengue cases in Australia.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>e87</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1038/emi.2013.85</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Dengue virus (DENV) transmission in Australia is driven by weather factors and imported dengue fever (DF) cases. However, uncertainty remains regarding the threshold effects of high-order interactions among weather factors and imported DF cases and the impact of these factors on autochthonous DF. A time-series regression tree model was used to assess the threshold effects of natural temporal variations of weekly weather factors and weekly imported DF cases in relation to incidence of weekly autochthonous DF from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009 in Townsville and Cairns, Australia. In Cairns, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence increased 16.3-fold when the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was <32 °C, the 4-week lagged moving average minimum temperature was ≥24 °C and the sum of imported DF cases in the previous 2 weeks was >0. When the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was ≥32 °C and the other two conditions mentioned above remained the same, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence only increased 4.6-fold. In Townsville, the mean weekly incidence of autochthonous DF increased 10-fold when 3-week lagged moving average rainfall was ≥27 mm, but it only increased 1.8-fold when rainfall was <27 mm during January to June. Thus, we found different responses of autochthonous DF incidence to weather factors and imported DF cases in Townsville and Cairns. Imported DF cases may also trigger and enhance local outbreaks under favorable climate conditions. </AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Huang</LastName><ForeName>Xiaodong</ForeName><Initials>X</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Clements</LastName><ForeName>Archie Ca</ForeName><Initials>AC</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Williams</LastName><ForeName>Gail</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Milinovich</LastName><ForeName>Gabriel</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Hu</LastName><ForeName>Wenbiao</ForeName><Initials>W</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>The University of Queensland, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health , Brisbane, Qld 4006, Australia ; School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology , Brisbane, Qld 4006, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2013</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>18</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>Emerg Microbes Infect</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101594885</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2222-1751</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Aedes aegypti</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">autochthonous dengue</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">classification and regression tree</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">dengue fever</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">imported dengue</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2013</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>12</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2013</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>11</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2013</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>13</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2015</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>4</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2013</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>1</Day><Hour>0</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2013</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>1</Day><Hour>0</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">26038449</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1038/emi.2013.85</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC3880872</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Epidemiol Infect. 2009 Aug;137(8):1188-202</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">19192322</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Med Clin North Am. 2008 Nov;92(6):1377-90, x</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">19061757</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Acta Trop. 2007 Jul;103(1):50-7</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">17612499</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Aust N Z J Public Health. 2006 Jun;30(3):220-5</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">16800197</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2013 Jan;88(1):65-72</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23166197</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Commun Dis Intell Q Rep. 2013 Mar 31;37(1):E55-9</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23692160</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>BMC Infect Dis. 2011 Jun 08;11:164</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">21651779</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Trop Med Int Health. 2011 May;16(5):598-607</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">21320241</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1987 Jan;36(1):143-52</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">3812879</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Int J Health Geogr. 2005 Jun 08;4:13</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">15943863</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Med Vet Entomol. 2000 Mar;14(1):31-7</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">10759309</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Clin Microbiol Rev. 1998 Jul;11(3):480-96</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">9665979</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Lancet. 2012 Nov 3;380(9853):1535-6</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">22975339</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2009;3(2):e382</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">19221592</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2000 Jan;62(1):11-8</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">10761719</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2012;6(2):e1470</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">22348154</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Med J Aust. 2009 Mar 2;190(5):265-8</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">19296793</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Glob Health Action. 2009 Nov 11;2:null</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">20052380</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Australie</li></country></list><tree><country name="Australie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Huang, Xiaodong" sort="Huang, Xiaodong" uniqKey="Huang X" first="Xiaodong" last="Huang">Xiaodong Huang</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Clements, Archie Ca" sort="Clements, Archie Ca" uniqKey="Clements A" first="Archie Ca" last="Clements">Archie Ca Clements</name><name sortKey="Hu, Wenbiao" sort="Hu, Wenbiao" uniqKey="Hu W" first="Wenbiao" last="Hu">Wenbiao Hu</name><name sortKey="Milinovich, Gabriel" sort="Milinovich, Gabriel" uniqKey="Milinovich G" first="Gabriel" last="Milinovich">Gabriel Milinovich</name><name sortKey="Williams, Gail" sort="Williams, Gail" uniqKey="Williams G" first="Gail" last="Williams">Gail Williams</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Bois/explor/TreeMicInterV1/Data/Main/Exploration
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000221 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 000221 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Bois
|area= TreeMicInterV1
|flux= Main
|étape= Exploration
|type= RBID
|clé= pubmed:26038449
|texte= A threshold analysis of dengue transmission in terms of weather variables and imported dengue cases in Australia.
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:26038449" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a TreeMicInterV1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.37. |  |